It is time to let go of the dream. You know the one, where Kevin Durant and another star fly in through the window and the Knicks become an immediate title contender. A month ago that dream seemed so real that even bona fide Knicks haters and axe-to-grinders were wearing orange and blue Freddy Krueger sweaters. They had to choke down their bile, concede that a rumor that doesn’t die is not a rumor, and shift their hot takes to “well, the Knicks will screw it up somehow.”
If you’re a Knicks fan, and you are fully present, you are now endeavoring to sit with a four-week run of the following footballs to the groin: 1. The team STILL has not out-drafted its record or received the first pick since the first NBA draft lottery in 1985; 2. BOTH the Pelicans and the Lakers went full-on front office clown show in 2018-19, yet were absolutely gifted franchise-altering talent; and 3. Kevin Durant ruptured his Achilles tendon, putting him out for this coming season and raising questions about his basketball future. Fuck the basketball gods. For real. Fuck them. They are as capricious and mean as the Greek ones.
To be fair, many Knicks fans are genuinely excited about RJ Barrett. He was easily the right draft pick, once trading the pick was off the table. His excitement about playing for the Knicks and connections to the city have a fun David Wright-like vibe to them, and I say that as a stone cold Barrett skeptic. So, this off-season hasn’t been all bad news. But make no mistake, the Knicks are currently constructed for an Orlando Magicesque brand of rank mediocrity. And even that is probably 2-3 seasons off.
So, this whole post is basically a mild defense of rank mediocrity. Not only would it be a colossal improvement over the recent past, it is also the proper short-term goal. Perry and Mills played their “we can offer you a blank slate” card. This was the last chance to play it, whether Durant signs in New York or elsewhere. It’s played. From here on out, New York will need to play an “upward mobility” card to even get a meeting with (near-) Hall of Fame talent. If there is any hope of playing such a card successfully, the current core, likely supplemented by a few vets, must demonstrate actual upward mobility. It’s gotta play its way out of the hell of 20-or-fewer wins at least into the purgatory of 30-35 wins this season and into playoff contention the next.
So, without further ado, here are three guiding principles for upward mobility in the NBA.
Principle #1 Take Meetings with As Many Stars As Possible
Getting a meeting doesn’t matter much, in the sense that it’s not predictive. But, NOT getting a meeting matters a great deal in that it is almost perfectly predictive. If Perry and Mills are going to go star-chasing in 2-3 seasons they have to start selling their vision to players and powerful agents now.
Principle #2 Only Pay the Right People
The question is, who are the “right” people? Assuming Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard move on, the Knicks really should sit out any other max- or near-max deals. Tobias Harris meshes nicely on paper with a super young and not super-talented squad, but signing him to a max/near max deal to put up numbers on a bad team would be unwise. Ditto Kemba. Fortunately, the Knicks have not been rumored to really be in on either.
Instead, the Knicks should be looking at decent players who could use a market re-set on short-term deals. Team options after one season are best, but I wouldn’t balk at a player option in some cases. Portland’s Al-Farouq Aminu is a prime example of the type of player I’d overpay on a short-term deal and I might concede to a player option in year two. He’s a low-volume stretch four that defends well and could literally play in any scheme. Assuming the luxury tax scares Portland away from a strong bid to keep him, he could be looking to chase a ring or chase checks. Seats on title contenders may fill up quickly leaving players like Aminu looking for short-term deals that allow a bit of leverage, especially if they have value in a potential trade deadline deal.
Similarly, the Knicks should look to trade for players made available as teams look to shed salary. For instance, Steven Adams was heavily rumored to be dealt on draft night, and Oklahoma City may have several players available. A veteran like Adams would, for instance, help the development of the talented, but foul prone, and inexperienced Robinson.
Principle #3 Just Say NO to Toxic Assets
Some have argued the Knicks should rent their cap space to help contending teams unload bad contracts in exchange for future assets. I’m not opposed to renting cap space in principle, but the Knicks should stay away from “toxic” assets. Generally, “no contracts with three+ years remaining” seems like the right rule of thumb. And let me repeat: rule of thumb. A bona fide star looking to force his way out of a bad situation (e.g., Karl Anthony Towns) is worth exploring case by case. What’s more likely is Darryl Morey trying to dump his junk (i.e., three years of Ryan Anderson’s and CP3’s terrible contracts) on the Knicks. A different way New York could rent cap space is to facilitate 3-way trades between capped out teams, if again, Perry and Mills target young players and/or picks and leave toxic assets alone.
A final note regarding acquiring picks. New York should learn a lesson from Boston. It’s fair to criticize Danny Ainge for never “pulling the trigger” on a truly big deal given all his alleged draft capital, but that take doesn’t properly appreciate the catch-22 he faced. The use value of those picks is higher than their exchange value. In other words, the league is daring him to keep all those picks and develop them if he thinks they’re so valuable.
Draft picks are obviously valuable. They are by far the most reliable source of cheap rotational talent–a must in a salary capped sport. But just like in your real life, really good fruit is super cheap when there’s a bumper crop. Or more formally, utility is constrained by storage capacity. When you have more draft picks than you can reasonably accommodate with roster spots and development they become less valuable in trade. Now I’m not saying the Knicks should walk away from unprotected lottery picks. I’m saying that we’d all do well to remember the Knicks own a good number picks into the foreseeable future: all their own, the two Dallas first round picks, and the two Charlotte second round picks. Hoarding picks for their own sake may not be the wisest move. Rather, the team should pursue a balance between picks and players on reasonable deals.